Pilot supply might not meet demand
With talk of a looming worldwide pilot shortage whilst aircraft orders and air travel are on the increase, FTA (a leading UK commercial pilot training school, based in Brighton) requested statistics from all the Aviation Authorities across Europe, to see just how many commercial pilot licences were issued in recent years in the UK and across Europe. The results were surprising.
Last year, around 4,000 initial Commercial Pilot Licences (fixed wing) or Multi Pilot Licences were issued in the EU and this number seems to be decreasing year on year in the UK, according to the CAA statistics from the last four years. Taking into account licence issues in individual countries, where statistics are available, the UK issued the most licences at 1072 but 48 % of the licences issued were to non-UK nationals. Most of the EU statistics are available but some countries (especially the smaller ones) were not able to provide statistics, so FTA has made certain assumptive estimations for those countries, based on population.
Are we going to run out of qualified pilots in Europe?
The current throughput might not be enough to meet demand when we consider that Boeing, the world's largest plane manufacturer has estimated that by 2034, there will be a need for 95,000 new commercial airline pilots in the EU alone. This equates to 5,000 pilots a year.
‘The UK is a great place for pilot training. The language of aviation is English; the weather and airspace are extremely complex and training standards are amongst the highest in the world. These key factors attract a lot of overseas students and is the main reason why the statistics for UK licence issues can seem disproportionately high’, says Jonathan Candelon, managing director at FTA.
Data obtained from the UK CAA confirms an overall decline of 31% in total Commercial Pilot Licences (CPLs) issued over the four-year period from 2011 to 2015. From a high of 1555 issued in 2011, this number has dropped to 1072 for 2014.
FTA considers this to be quite alarming, considering that airlines are on big recruitment drives. The issue is perfectly illustrated by the fact that one established low cost carrier alone is looking to hire 600 pilots in the next year. This equates to 15% of the total annual European throughput for just one airline.
There is clearly a need to encourage more people to take up pilot training, if the licence issue numbers are to increase to meet demand, as FTA predicts.
‘Flexibility and being willing to go where the jobs are, working for airlines that pilots might not previously have considered and taking roles in the private jet sector are all options to consider for inexperienced pilots looking for their first job’, says Jonathan Candelon. ‘FTA encourages students to think about a range of airline employer options; their students have taken jobs with over 30 different airlines and numerous aviation companies across the globe.
FTA works hard to broaden cadet horizons and keep options open for their students through a focus on quality of training and high standards, as well as providing CV and interview support for cadets at the end of their course. With 91% (and climbing) of cadets that trained with them last year already in pilot jobs, FTA reports unprecedented pilot demand with some cadets being invited to interviews before even qualifying.
But it’s not just about getting a commercial pilot’s licence, according to FTA. ‘Prospective students should not view a pilot licence as a commodity’, says Jonathan Candelon. ‘Employers look at where cadets have completed their course, their skill levels and standards. It can make a big difference on a CV or job application. Employers understand the quality and high standards of UK training and even the standards that students will have attained at individual schools. For cadets that choose ‘cheap’ courses based purely on cost, this decision might actually end up being very expensive. There is also a real difference between cost and value and aspiring cadets should consider this when looking at ATOs at the very top of the price bracket too. Pilot training is a once in a lifetime purchase; it’s totally intangible and there is no value to anyone else but the candidate. So it’s very important to do your research (online and in person) to get it right first time, in terms of course, quality of training and the school that you choose’, he states.
From close analysis of the licence issue situation, Candelon concludes, ‘We estimate that up to 20% of the 4000 commercial pilots that qualify are non EU and gain employment in their home country. This brings the number of new European pilots emerging each year down to just over 3,000 and we must bear in mind that within this number some pilots will not be able to gain employment due to their personal circumstances (for instance they might not be able to relocate for that first job) or because they do not meet the airline’s profile or standards (some airlines reject up to half of candidates applying due to low standards) amongst others. This demonstrates a clear shortfall from the 5,000 required.’
In the course of their extensive research, FTA has seen that cost and quality of training are the biggest factors for parents and students considering pilot training. With some integrated courses costing over £100,000, FTA has decided to address this issue head on, with the launch of the Economy version of their Integrated Flight Deck Programme. This new version of the course takes students with zero flying experience to frozen ATPL in 16-18 months for just £59,950 (payable in instalments), making pilot training more accessible, to encourage more young people to take-up pilot training.
- Since publishing this article Boeing have release their outlook for 2016-2035 which suggest continued growth in the aviation industry. Read Boeing's full report online...
- Pilot Careers News have also re-looked at this issue, read the full article on their website: www.pilotcareernews.com